Spending patterns

The fiscal-year rhythm.

India's fiscal year ends 31 March and new budgets open in April, so awards ramp up through the year and reset each spring. We used to headline this as the "March rush" - then we stress-tested it, and it does not earn red-flag status. Here is the pattern, and the test that demoted it.

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of all awards land in March
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of the whole year's awards land in March's 2nd half

Awards by month

Share of awards by calendar month. If procurement were even, every bar would sit near 8.3%.

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It happens every year

March's share of awards, year by year - a consistent, predictable calendar effect.

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Why we no longer call this a red flag

A year-end "use it or lose it" scramble should show up as money, not just paperwork - big contracts dumped before the deadline. We tested that on the full deduplicated corpus, and it is not there:

The money does not spike

March holds 10.9% of award count but only 10.0% of awarded value - barely above the 8.5% an even calendar would give, and lower than January (12.7%). The Jan–Mar quarter carries 30.2% of the year's value, inside the government's own 33% norm for year-end expenditure.

March awards are not bigger

The median March award is Rs 8.6 lakh - identical to the median award in the rest of the year. What remains is the mechanical rhythm of a fiscal calendar: budgets close in March, new ones open in April, and tenders take weeks to process - a gradient, not a scandal.

One more data point on where the rush actually lives: tender publication timing is close to flat all year (see Buyers & Patterns) - it's award finalization that clusters toward March, not the decision to open a new tender. The scramble is in closing out approvals already in the pipeline, not launching new procurement.

We keep this page because the rhythm is real and worth knowing when reading the other figures - but we present it as a calendar effect, not an integrity signal. Retiring an overreach is part of the methodology: see how we audit ourselves.